Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
The Book in Three Sentences
Thinking in terms of probability rather than “yes” or “no” triggers a more open-minded exploration of alternative hypothesis, making us more likely to explore the opposite side of an argument more often and more seriously. The people with the most legitimate claim to a bulletproof self-narrative have developed habits around accurate self critique. Sharing your uncertainty with others invites collaboration in the same way scientists share their experiment methodology.
Resulting
Our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. (Annie Duke states poker players use the term resulting in this context). (p7)
Ignoring your careful analysis when the decision didn’t work out, and treating the result as if it were an inevitable consequence rather than a probabilistic one. (p10)
Chess, for all its strategic complexity, isn’t a great model for decision-making in life. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck. Poker, in contrast, is a game of incomplete information. Once the game is finished and you try to learn from the results, separating the quality of your decisions from the influence of luck is difficult. In chess, outcomes correlate more tightly with decision quality; in poker, it is much easier to get lucky and win, or get unlucky and lose. (pp21–22)
Betting on life
Life is more akin to a game of poker: if life were like chess, nearly every time you ran a red light you would receive a ticket or get in an accident. You could run the red light and be just fine, or follow the rules of the road and get in an accident anyway. (p22)
Decisions are bets on the future: they aren’t “right” or “wrong” based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration. An unwanted result doesn’t make our decision wong if we thought about the alternatives and probabilities in advance and allocated our resources accordingly. (p33)
Don’t believe everything you’re told
Abstract belief formation—beliefs outside our direct experience, conveyed through language—is likely among the few things that are uniquely human. This is a relatively new concept in the scope of evolutionary time. Before language, our ancestors could form new beliefs only through what they directly experienced in the physical world around them. (p51–52)
The evolutionary system we have in place is to (1) experience it, (2) believe it to be true, and (3) maybe—rarely—question it later or refine our ideas. When an idea is conveyed to us through language and we apply the same system; this becomes problematic when we internalize information without confirming whether or not it’s true later. (p52)
Incorporate uncertainty into your life
Express uncertainty instead of treating information that disagrees with us as a threat (or something we have to defend against).When confronted with new evidence it is easier to say “I was 55% sure but now I’m 30%. We are less likely to succumb to motivated reasoning since it feels better to make small adjustments in degrees of certainty instead of having to grossly downgrade from “right” to “wrong”. (p70)
Uncertainty allows for deeper communication with others:
Express your level of uncertainty — this avoids others fear of being “wrong” and withholding valuable insights.
Lead with approval — listen for things you agree with and then follow with “and” instead of “but” (supplementing rather than negating).
Validating the other person’s experience of the past and refocusing on exploration of the future, they can get to their past decisions on their own.
Affirming the others beliefs will allow yourself to be more open to their response. (pp172–175)
Sharing your uncertainty with others invites collaboration in the same way scientists share their experiment methodology: the goal is to advance the knowledge rather than affirm what they already believe. (p72)
You can reduce uncertainty due to incomplete information by asking others. We get wrapped up in preserving our inner narrative; a diversity of viewpoints can fill in the gaps in what we know. You can’t know the truth of the matter without hearing the other side. (p139–140)
Seek the truth and share your results
The people with the most legitimate claim to a bulletproof self-narrative have developed habits around accurate self critique. (p108)
Thinking in terms of probability rather than “yes” or “no” triggers a more open-minded exploration of alternative hypothesis, making us more likely to explore the opposite side of an argument more often and more seriously. (p112)
Experts in their field share data—it’s one of the reasons they become experts. Sharing data with others is the best way to move toward accuracy because it extracts insight from your listeners. (p158)
You can be more open minded: separate the message from the messenger by imagining the data came from a source you value, know, and trust. (p163)
Reward others when they share more of their story and share data with you. (p160)
Making decisions and staying cool
Outcomes are not signals of your decision quality—life is not like chess. Evaluate your strategy before you know the results to avoid a bias assessment. (p167)
Become a better decision maker by using the power of seeing “10-10-10” (Suzy Welch). The process is simple, ask yourself: “what are the consequences of my decisions or opinions in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?” The same tool can be used to think about your past self. (p188)
A flat tire in the rain isn’t as awful as it seems in the moment. Use the 10-10-10 strategy of time-travel to calm yourself down in a tough moment and use the more rational part of the brain. (p191)
It doesn’t matter where we end up—it’s how we got there (“the way we field outcomes is path dependent” as Duke says). What has happened in our recent past plays a significant role in our emotional response much more that how we’re doing overall. (p195)
Other interesting points
People involved in specialized activities have specialized words to communicate a complex concept in a single word that the average person would need lengthy phrases to convey. For example: carpenters have at least a dozen names for different kinds of nails; or surfers have over twenty terms to describe different waves (closeouts, double-ups, reforms, etc). (p197)